Kalshi · Trade on the outcome of real-world events

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Politics · Congress

Senate control after the 2026 midterms?

Republican 64% Yes 65¢No 37¢

Democratic 36% Yes 37¢No 65¢

$788,935 vol · Closes Dec 4, 2026 · View market

Companies · IPOs

Major AI lab IPO before 2027?

9% chance

Yes 10¢No 92¢

$729,501 vol · Closes Dec 31, 2026 · View market

Politics · House

Which party wins the House in 2026?

Democratic 71% Yes 72¢No 30¢

Republican 29% Yes 30¢No 72¢

$577,044 vol · Closes Dec 4, 2026 · View market

Financials · Indices

S&P 500 close on Dec 31?

7,000–7,250 35% Yes 36¢No 66¢

6,750–7,000 28% Yes 29¢No 73¢

Above 7,250 22% Yes 23¢No 79¢

Below 6,750 15% Yes 16¢No 86¢

$492,086 vol · Closes Dec 31, 2026 · View market

Economics · Inflation

CPI inflation above 3% in November?

41% chance

Yes 42¢No 60¢

$485,083 vol · Closes Dec 12, 2026 · View market

Markets to watch

Unemployment rate in November?

4.3% 34% Yes No

4.4% 29% Yes No

4.2% or lower 21% Yes No

$443,981 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 5, 2026

Best Picture winner at the 2027 Oscars?

Other 36% Yes No

Film A 27% Yes No

Film B 22% Yes No

$293,295 vol +1 more · Closes Mar 4, 2027

Best AI model at year end?

Lab A 46% Yes No

Lab B 30% Yes No

Lab C 16% Yes No

$82,753 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Hottest year on record in 2026?

36%

chance

Yes 37¢No 65¢

$51,726 vol Closes Jan 13, 2027

Crewed Moon landing before 2028?

24%

chance

Yes 25¢No 77¢

$47,170 vol Closes Dec 9, 2027

Fed decision in December?

Cut 25bps 61% Yes No

Hold 32% Yes No

Hike 25bps 4% Yes No

$15 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 14, 2026

Politics

See all

Senate control after the 2026 midterms?

Republican 64% Yes No

Democratic 36% Yes No

$788,935 vol Closes Dec 4, 2026

Which party wins the House in 2026?

Democratic 71% Yes No

Republican 29% Yes No

$577,044 vol Closes Dec 4, 2026

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

1 52% Yes No

2 35% Yes No

3 9% Yes No

$0 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 8, 2029

Sports

See all

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore Ravens 52% Yes No

Los Angeles Chargers 48% Yes No

$0 vol Closes in 7d

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals 61% Yes No

Pittsburgh Steelers 39% Yes No

$0 vol Closes in 6d

Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers 65% Yes No

Dallas Cowboys 35% Yes No

$0 vol Closes in 5d

Culture

See all

Best Picture winner at the 2027 Oscars?

Other 36% Yes No

Film A 27% Yes No

Film B 22% Yes No

$293,295 vol +1 more · Closes Mar 4, 2027

Crypto

See all

Bitcoin above $100,000 on Dec 31?

47%

chance

Yes 48¢No 54¢

$0 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Climate

See all

Hottest year on record in 2026?

36%

chance

Yes 37¢No 65¢

$51,726 vol Closes Jan 13, 2027

Snow in New York City on Christmas Day?

14%

chance

Yes 15¢No 87¢

$0 vol Closes Dec 26, 2026

Economics

See all

CPI inflation above 3% in November?

41%

chance

Yes 42¢No 60¢

$485,083 vol Closes Dec 12, 2026

Unemployment rate in November?

4.3% 34% Yes No

4.4% 29% Yes No

4.2% or lower 21% Yes No

$443,981 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 5, 2026

Fed decision in December?

Cut 25bps 61% Yes No

Hold 32% Yes No

Hike 25bps 4% Yes No

$15 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 14, 2026

Companies

See all

Major AI lab IPO before 2027?

9%

chance

Yes 10¢No 92¢

$729,501 vol Closes Dec 31, 2026

Financials

See all

S&P 500 close on Dec 31?

7,000–7,250 35% Yes No

6,750–7,000 28% Yes No

Above 7,250 22% Yes No

$492,086 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Tech & Science

See all

Best AI model at year end?

Lab A 46% Yes No

Lab B 30% Yes No

Lab C 16% Yes No

$82,753 vol +1 more · Closes Dec 31, 2026

Crewed Moon landing before 2028?

24%

chance

Yes 25¢No 77¢

$47,170 vol Closes Dec 9, 2027