Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?

If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable” when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in a prior federal habeas petition, regardless of whether the earlier claim would have succeeded, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that such a claim may qualify as previously unavailable because it lacked a possibility of merit when the earlier petition was filed, or if the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling on this question.