Elections

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Elections · 2028

Will Trump's first 2028 endorsee lose the GOP nomination?

26% chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol · Closes Sep 30, 2028 · View market

Elections · 2028

Will the 2028 Republican presidential primary be fractured?

11% chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol · Closes Sep 1, 2028 · View market

Elections · 2028

Will the 2028 Democratic presidential primary be fractured?

40% chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol · Closes Sep 1, 2028 · View market

2028

2028 London mayoral election winner?

Sadiq Khan 34% Yes No

Dawn Butler 18% Yes No

Laila Cunningham 15% Yes No

$0 vol +6 more · Closes May 1, 2029

2028

Who will win a state in the 2028 Republican primaries?

J.D. Vance 60% Yes No

Marco Rubio 40% Yes No

Ron DeSantis 30% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

Jon Ossoff 50% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 32% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 32% Yes No

$0 vol +9 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Who will run for president in 2028?

Thomas Massie 53% Yes No

Andrew Yang 42% Yes No

Marjorie Taylor Greene 34% Yes No

$0 vol +17 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?

J.D. Vance 18% Yes No

Ron DeSantis 15% Yes No

Marco Rubio 13% Yes No

$0 vol +34 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

Pete Buttigieg 27% Yes No

Andy Beshear 25% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11% Yes No

$0 vol +7 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Rahm Emanuel 23% Yes No

Ro Khanna 17% Yes No

Andy Beshear 13% Yes No

$0 vol +30 more · Closes Nov 1, 2028

2028

Who will run for U.S. Senate in 2028?

Ben Wikler 82% Yes No

Tim Burchett 82% Yes No

Angie Nixon 68% Yes No

$0 vol +27 more · Closes Jul 1, 2028

2028

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

Who will run for Pennsylvania Senate in 2028?

Chris Deluzio 81% Yes No

Conor Lamb 76% Yes No

Summer Lee 64% Yes No

$0 vol +8 more · Closes Feb 16, 2028

2028

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

17%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Mar 1, 2028

2028

How many candidates will win a 2028 Republican primary?

At least 2 75% Yes No

At least 3 40% Yes No

At least 4 17% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

How many candidates will win a 2028 Democratic primary?

At least 2 98% Yes No

At least 3 60% Yes No

At least 4 30% Yes No

$0 vol +2 more · Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Will the first Republican contest winner be the nominee?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?

Before Sep 1, 2027 96% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 93% Yes No

$0 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

2028

When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?

Before Mar 1, 2027 97% Yes No

Before Apr 1, 2027 97% Yes No

Before Jun 1, 2027 97% Yes No

$0 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

2028

Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?

40%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

New Hampshire 84% Yes No

Iowa 9% Yes No

South Carolina 4% Yes No

$0 vol +1 more · Closes Apr 1, 2028

2028

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

11%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 8, 2028

2028

2028 U.S. Vice-Presidential Election winner

James Talarico 12% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% Yes No

Marco Rubio 7% Yes No

$0 vol +24 more · Closes Jan 6, 2030

2028

Will anyone win every 2028 Republican primary and caucus?

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ron DeSantis 87% Yes No

Ted Cruz 86% Yes No

John McEntee 83% Yes No

$0 vol +39 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

2028

When will each party have 2 announced 2028 presidential candidates?

Before Apr 1, 2028 97% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2027 96% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

$0 vol +5 more · Closes Apr 1, 2028

2028

2028 Presidential matchup

Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio 10% Yes No

Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance 9% Yes No

Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance 8% Yes No

$0 vol +27 more · Closes Nov 7, 2028

2028

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance 10% Yes No

AOC defeats JD Vance 7% Yes No

Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio 7% Yes No

$0 vol +29 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

2028

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

95%

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Dec 1, 2028

2028

Will anyone win every 2028 Democratic primary and caucus?

chance

Yes —No —

$0 vol Closes Sep 1, 2028

2028

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Pete Buttigieg 94% Yes No

Andy Beshear 92% Yes No

J.B. Pritzker 90% Yes No

$0 vol +42 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Midterms

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

At least 2 12% Yes No

At least 3 6% Yes No

At least 1 4% Yes No

$0 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 3, 2027

Midterms

Number of Republican governors after the midterms?

At least 21 3% Yes No

At least 22 3% Yes No

At least 26 2% Yes No

$0 vol +5 more · Closes Feb 1, 2027

US Elections

Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout

Above 900K 99% Yes No

Above 950K 99% Yes No

Above 1.0M 99% Yes No

$0 vol +9 more · Closes Nov 3, 2027