Elections · 2028
When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?
Order book
Rules
Before Jan 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Feb 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Mar 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Apr 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jun 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Sep 1, 2027: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jan 1, 2028: If at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Announcing a run means a listed person publicly announces, themselves or through their official campaign, that they are running for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. A later withdrawal does not undo an announcement. Filing with the Federal Election Commission without a public announcement, forming an exploratory committee, saying they are considering a run, and a run for another party's nomination or as an independent do NOT count.
The listed Republicans are the following 40 people, and no one else will be added: Greg Abbott, Steve Bannon, Jeff Bezos, Gregory Bovino, Katie Britt, Doug Burgum, Tucker Carlson, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, Byron Donalds, Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Pete Hegseth, Larry Hogan, Brian Kemp, John Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Joe Kent, Erika Kirk, Jared Kushner, Thomas Massie, John McEntee, Rand Paul, Spencer Pratt, Vivek Ramaswamy, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, John Thune, Donald J. Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, J.D. Vance and Glenn Youngkin.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 17:14:44 UTC
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Event starts2026-11-09 21:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2028-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
2028 Republican presidential nomination Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXPRESRUNFIRSTR-28) and then move with trading here.
When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
