Will the 2028 Republican presidential primary be fractured?

If the lowest winning vote share among 2028 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses is below 25% in the final round of counting, for contests held before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The contests are the statewide Republican presidential primary or caucus in each of the 50 states and DC that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from that jurisdiction (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota, the contest is the Republican presidential primary conducted by the state, whether or not it allocates or binds national convention delegates. A contest that reports no statewide vote count is disregarded, as is any contest of a U.S. territory or Republicans Abroad. A contest's winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. The winning vote share is the winner's votes divided by all votes counted in that final round, including votes for "Uncommitted" and similar options and write-in votes. Resolution is based on certified results only, not preliminary results; for a contest run by a party, the party's official reported results are used. If no contest qualifies before Sep 1, 2028, the market resolves to No.