Log in Sign up
Politics · SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?

$1,668 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

If the Supreme Court, in Kian v. Florida, rules the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments require a 12-person jury when a defendant is charged with a serious felony, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments entitle a defendant charged with a serious felony to trial by a 12-person jury, such that trying the defendant before a jury of fewer than 12 persons violates that constitutional right, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court rules that the Constitution does not require a 12-person jury in that circumstance. If the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or otherwise disposed of without a merits ruling on that question, including through a remand that does not decide the question, the market resolves to No.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 20:19:35 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-07-24 00:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-08-01 14:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Aug 1, 2028 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSCOTUSCASE-KIAFLO28) and then move with trading here.