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Politics · SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?

$819 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

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Rules

If the Supreme Court, in Nielsen v. Watanabe, rules Watanabe may not pursue a Bivens damages claim against Nielsen for allegedly inadequate medical care, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that the Ninth Circuit erred in recognizing a Bivens cause of action for Watanabe’s claim against Nielsen, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that the Ninth Circuit did not err, dismisses the case, finds certiorari improvidently granted, or vacates or remands without deciding whether the Ninth Circuit erred in recognizing the Bivens cause of action. A remand accompanied by a merits holding that the Ninth Circuit did err resolves to Yes.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 20:19:36 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-07-24 00:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-08-01 14:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Aug 1, 2028 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSCOTUSCASE-NIEWAT28) and then move with trading here.