Politics · SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?
Order book
Rules
If the Supreme Court, in RiseandShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc., rules trademark strength is a question of fact in determining likelihood of confusion under 15 U.S.C. § 1114, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that trademark strength is a question of fact in a likelihood-of-confusion analysis under 15 U.S.C. § 1114 after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that trademark strength is a question of law, characterizes it as a mixed question without holding that the trademark-strength determination is factual, dismisses the writ as improvidently granted, or otherwise dismisses, vacates, or remands the case without resolving the Question Presented on the merits. A remand following an express merits holding that trademark strength is a question of fact resolves to Yes.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 20:19:36 UTC
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Event starts2026-07-24 00:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2028-08-01 14:00:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
Before Aug 1, 2028 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSCOTUSCASE-RISPEP28) and then move with trading here.
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
