Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?

If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, either that proving a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin may displace Smith even when the government has not explicitly excluded religious people or institutions, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A merits ruling establishing either proposition is sufficient, even if the Court does not reach the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition, or if the case is dismissed, settled, DIG’d, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing either proposition.