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Politics · SCOTUS & Courts

Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?

$455 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

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Rules

If the Supreme Court, in Wassily v. Blanche, rules termination of a noncitizen’s asylum does not categorically bar that person from seeking adjustment to lawful permanent resident status under 8 U.S.C. § 1159(b), then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that noncitizens who were granted asylum, but whose asylum was later terminated, are not categorically ineligible for adjustment to lawful permanent resident status under 8 U.S.C. § 1159(b), after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that such noncitizens are categorically ineligible. If the Court dismisses the writ as improvidently granted, dismisses the case, remands without resolving this question, or otherwise disposes of the case without a merits ruling on this issue, the market resolves to No.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 20:19:38 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-07-24 00:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-08-01 14:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Aug 1, 2028 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSCOTUSCASE-WASBLA28) and then move with trading here.