Economics · Fed
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
Order book
Rules
Exactly 0: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 1: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 2: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 3: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 4: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 5: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 6: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 6, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 7: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 7, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 8: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 8, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 9: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 9, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 10: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 10, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 11: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 11, then the market resolves to Yes.
Exactly 12: If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 12, then the market resolves to Yes.
A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 21:44:15 UTC
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Event starts2026-02-26 15:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
Before 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01) and then move with trading here.
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
