Economics · Fed

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

$47,854 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Dot Plot Omitted: If a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Presser Skipped: If the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Reserve President Removed: If the Board of Governors removes a Federal Reserve Bank president from office after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Reserve President Rejected: If the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Trimmed Mean Emphasized: If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Clarification 9/28/26: “Dot Plot Omitted” refers to a published Summary of Economic Projections omitting individual participants’ federal funds rate projections as a whole. The absence of a projection from one or more participants does not qualify if other participants’ individual projections are published. Those projections count regardless of their presentation format or whether the term “dot plot” is used.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 21:44:17 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-05-05 14:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Jan 1, 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXFEDREFORM-27) and then move with trading here.