Economics · GDP
US real GDP growth in 2030?
Order book
Rules
0.0% or Below: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.1% to 0.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.6% to 1.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.1% to 1.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.6% to 2.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.1% to 2.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.6% to 3.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.1% to 3.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.6% to 4.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.1% to 4.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.6% to 5.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.1% to 5.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.6% to 6.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is between 5.6% to 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
6.1% or Above: If the United States real GDP growth in 2030 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2030. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2030 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2030 GDP in early 2031. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
Timeline
-
Market opened2026-11-10 21:45:06 UTC
-
Event starts2026-06-08 21:30:00 UTC
-
Market closes2031-02-28 13:29:00 UTC
-
PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
2030 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXGDPYEAR-30) and then move with trading here.
US real GDP growth in 2030?
—
New here? Create an account
Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
