Economics · GDP
US real GDP growth in 2033?
Order book
Rules
0.0% or Below: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.1% to 0.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.6% to 1.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.1% to 1.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.6% to 2.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.1% to 2.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.6% to 3.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.1% to 3.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.6% to 4.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.1% to 4.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.6% to 5.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.1% to 5.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.6% to 6.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is between 5.6% to 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
6.1% or Above: If the United States real GDP growth in 2033 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2033. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2033 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2033 GDP in early 2034. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 21:45:08 UTC
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Event starts2026-07-28 00:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2034-02-28 13:29:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
2033 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXGDPYEAR-33) and then move with trading here.
US real GDP growth in 2033?
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
