Economics · GDP
US real GDP growth in 2034?
Order book
Rules
0.0% or Below: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.1% to 0.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
0.6% to 1.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.1% to 1.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
1.6% to 2.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.1% to 2.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
2.6% to 3.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.1% to 3.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
3.6% to 4.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.1% to 4.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
4.6% to 5.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.1% to 5.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
5.6% to 6.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is between 5.6% to 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
6.1% or Above: If the United States real GDP growth in 2034 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2034. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2034 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2034 GDP in early 2035. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 21:45:08 UTC
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Event starts2026-07-28 00:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2035-02-28 13:29:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
2034 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXGDPYEAR-34) and then move with trading here.
US real GDP growth in 2034?
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
