Economics · GDP

US real GDP growth in 2036?

$158,459 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

0.0% or Below: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. 0.1% to 0.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 0.1% to 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 0.6% to 1.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 1.1% to 1.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 1.1% to 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 1.6% to 2.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 2.1% to 2.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 2.6% to 3.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 3.1% to 3.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 3.1% to 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 3.6% to 4.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 4.1% to 4.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 4.6% to 5.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 5.1% to 5.5%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. 5.6% to 6.0%: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is between 5.6% to 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. 6.1% or Above: If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2036. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2036 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2036 GDP in early 2037. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 21:45:10 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-07-28 00:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2037-12-31 13:29:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

2036 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXGDPYEAR-36) and then move with trading here.