Economics · GDP
US nominal GDP growth in 2030
Order book
Rules
Above 0.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 0.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 1.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 1.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 2.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 2.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 3.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 3.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 4.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 4.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 5.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 5.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Above 6.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2030 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the 2030 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2030,” or its equivalent successor publication.
The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 21:45:56 UTC
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Event starts2026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2031-01-28 13:29:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
2030 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXNOMGDPGROWTH-31JAN28) and then move with trading here.
US nominal GDP growth in 2030
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
