Economics · GDP

US nominal GDP growth in 2031

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Rules

Above 0.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 0.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 1.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 1.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 2.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 2.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 3.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 3.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 4.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 4.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 5.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 5.5%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 6.0%: If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2031 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2031 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2031,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 21:45:57 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2032-01-28 13:29:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

2031 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXNOMGDPGROWTH-32JAN28) and then move with trading here.