How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year?

Order book

Rules

Above 500000 in a single quarter: If Tesla delivers more than 500000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 750000 in a single quarter: If Tesla delivers more than 750000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 1000000 in a single quarter: If Tesla delivers more than 1000000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 1500000 in a single quarter: If Tesla delivers more than 1500000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Above 2000000 in a single quarter: If Tesla delivers more than 2000000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline

Market opened

2026-11-10 21:52:32 UTC
Event starts

2025-03-20 14:00:00 UTC
Market closes

2027-04-01 15:00:00 UTC
Payout

Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXTESLADELIVERYBY-27) and then move with trading here.