Log in Sign up
Tech & Science · AI

AI capability growth this year?

$463,152 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

At least 1520 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1530 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1540 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1550 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1600 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1650 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1700 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes. At least 1750 score: If an AI model has a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 21:56:09 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-01-06 15:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2027-01-01 15:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXAISPIKE-27) and then move with trading here.