Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Order book

Rules

Meta: If Meta's top model has a higher Arena Score than OpenAI's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. OpenAI: If OpenAI's top model has a higher Arena Score than Meta's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Each company's top model is its highest-ranked model in the Overall category of the leaderboard, with style control removed (Adjustments: None). A model belongs to the company the leaderboard lists as its organization. Preliminary models count. If the two top models show the same Arena Score, the one ranked higher on the leaderboard wins.

Timeline

Market opened

2026-11-10 21:56:14 UTC
Event starts

2026-10-12 20:00:00 UTC
Market closes

2026-12-31 15:00:00 UTC
Payout

Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

On Dec 31, 2026 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXLLMH2H-26DEC31METAOPEN) and then move with trading here.