Tech & Science · AI
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Order book
Rules
Before Oct 1, 2026: If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Jan 1, 2027: If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The qualifying announcement must expressly state that Anthropic developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with Anthropic on developing that solution.
The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem.
Work by an independent Claude user does NOT count, even if Anthropic publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution.
Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.
Timeline
-
Market opened2026-11-10 21:56:40 UTC
-
Event starts2026-09-05 22:37:58 UTC
-
Market closes2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
-
PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
Before Jan 1, 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXANTHROPICMILLENNIUM-27) and then move with trading here.
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
—
New here? Create an account
Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.
