Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027

Order book

Rules

If any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China is the #1 model on Arena's Text Arena overall leaderboard (no style control) during Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST through Dec 31, 2027 at 11:59pm EST, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Arena. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Timeline

Market opened

2026-11-10 21:56:48 UTC
Event starts

2026-11-05 21:30:07 UTC
Market closes

2028-01-01 04:59:59 UTC
Payout

Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

From Jan 1, 2027 through Dec 31, 2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXCHINA1-27DEC31) and then move with trading here.