Tech & Science · Space
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Order book
Rules
If Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship as well as before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Timeline
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Market opened2026-11-10 21:57:38 UTC
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Event starts2025-02-21 15:00:00 UTC
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Market closes2030-01-01 15:00:00 UTC
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PayoutWinning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed
About
Before 2030 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXBLUESPACEX-30) and then move with trading here.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
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Each contract pays $1.00 if your side is right. Prices are the market's odds: 62¢ ≈ 62% chance.
Taker fee: 7.00% × P × (1 − P) per contract, rounded up.