Tech & Science · Space

Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?

$48,909 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Before Jan 1, 2028: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2029: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2030: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2031: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2033: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2035: If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 21:57:39 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-05-27 14:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2035-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSPACEDATACENTER-26) and then move with trading here.