Will the first Democratic contest winner be the nominee?

If the winner of the first state nominating contest wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The first state nominating contest is the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential nominating contest held in any of the 50 states that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes it or awards delegates on it. A state's contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For New Hampshire, the contest is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, and for Iowa it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes either one. If contests in more than one state are held on the earliest date, the one that allocates the most delegates counts. A contest is held on its last day of voting. The winner of that contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no state contest is held, the market resolves to No.