Will the first Republican contest winner be the nominee?

If the winner of the first state nominating contest wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The first state nominating contest is the earliest 2028 Republican presidential nominating contest held in any of the 50 states that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates. A state's contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from that state (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota, the contest is the state-run Republican presidential primary, whether or not it allocates or binds national convention delegates. If contests in more than one state are held on the earliest date, the one that allocates the most delegates counts. A contest is held on its last day of voting. The winner of that contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no state contest is held, the market resolves to No.