Elections · 2028

Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries?

$9 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Jon Ossoff: If Jon Ossoff wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Gavin Newsom: If Gavin Newsom wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Buttigieg: If Pete Buttigieg wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Andy Beshear: If Andy Beshear wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Josh Shapiro: If Josh Shapiro wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Kamala Harris: If Kamala Harris wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. James Talarico: If James Talarico wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Mark Kelly: If Mark Kelly wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Abdul El-Sayed: If Abdul El-Sayed wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Raphael Warnock: If Raphael Warnock wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. Wes Moore: If Wes Moore wins at least one of the 2028 state Democratic presidential nominating contests, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. Only a statewide primary or caucus held in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia counts, and in each of them only the one that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state or district (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For New Hampshire, the contest is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, and for Iowa it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes either one. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. A contest that is not held before Sep 1, 2028, or that reports no statewide vote count, does NOT count.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 17:16:30 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-11-06 00:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-09-01 14:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

At least one state Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXDPRESPRIMWIN-28ANY) and then move with trading here.