2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Democrats, ≥2%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥4%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥5%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥6%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥7%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 7 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥8%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥9%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥10%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥11%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥12%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥13%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥13.5%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13.5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥14%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥14.2%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14.2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥14.4%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14.4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥14.5%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14.5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥15%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 15 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥15.5%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 15.5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Democrats, ≥16%: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.