How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

9 or more: If at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 10 or more: If at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 11 or more: If at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 12 or more: If at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 13 or more: If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 14 or more: If at least 14 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 15 or more: If at least 15 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 16 or more: If at least 16 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 17 or more: If at least 17 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. 18 or more: If at least 18 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election. Losses in 2026 House primaries and runoffs held before this market opened count, including for members who later leave office. Members who ran for a different office, such as the Senate, are not counted. Party is as listed by the Clerk of the House when this market opened. Non-voting delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not counted.