Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

AHV VAT financing: If Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional AHV financing through a VAT increase passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Fireworks Initiative: If Popular initiative For a limitation of fireworks passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. Fair taxes for married couples: If Popular initiative Yes to fair federal taxes for married couples – finally abolish discrimination against marriage! passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. War Materiel Act amendment: If Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Materiel passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.