Politics · Congress

When will Trump first veto a 120th Congress bill?

$96 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Before Mar 1, 2027: If Trump's veto of a 120th Congress bill or joint resolution is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Apr 1, 2027: If Trump's veto of a 120th Congress bill or joint resolution is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jul 1, 2027: If Trump's veto of a 120th Congress bill or joint resolution is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2028: If Trump's veto of a 120th Congress bill or joint resolution is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states <event claim> occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. A pocket veto counts. A veto of a bill or joint resolution passed by the 119th Congress does NOT count, even if made on or after Jan 3, 2027.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 19:30:47 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-11-07 05:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Jan 1, 2028 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXFIRSTVETO120-28) and then move with trading here.