Politics · Congress

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

$312 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Before Jan 1, 2027: If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2028: If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2029: If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Before Jan 1, 2030: If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates. The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000). Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 19:32:23 UTC
  • Event starts
    2026-05-14 20:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2030-01-01 15:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXCARRIEDINTEREST-26MAY) and then move with trading here.