Politics · NYC

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

$90,681 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

Decrease 3% or more: If the population change in New York City is -3% or less between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Decrease 2-2.99%: If the population change in New York City is between -2.99% and -2% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Decrease 1-1.99%: If the population change in New York City is between -1.99% and -1% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. No change or decrease 0–0.99%: If the population change in New York City is between -0.99% and 0% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Increase 0.01-0.99%: If the population change in New York City is between 0.01% and 0.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Increase 1-1.99%: If the population change in New York City is between 1% and 1.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Increase 2-2.99%: If the population change in New York City is between 2% and 2.99% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Increase 3% or more: If the population change in New York City is 3% or more between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Population change is calculated as ((July 2027 Population - July 2025 Population) / July 2025 Population) × 100, rounded to one decimal place. The market resolves based on official census counts or estimates from the relevant national statistical office or census bureau for the specified geography. If the geography is split into multiple entities during the time period, the combined population of all successor entities will be used. Preliminary counts or estimates are valid if final data is not available by expiration. If data is unavailable by the latest expiration date, all strikes resolve to No. For temporal markets, the market checks cumulative population change from the start of the time period to each potential resolution date.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 20:09:04 UTC
  • Event starts
    2025-11-08 15:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2028-06-01 03:59:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

2025-2027 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXPOPCHANGENYC-28JUN01) and then move with trading here.