Politics · SCOTUS & Courts

Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?

$10,099 vol
OutcomeChanceBuy

Order book

Rules

If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to any 3rd Amendment case before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The case must meet the following requirements: (1) The petition for certiorari explicitly raises a claim or question under the Third Amendment to the United States Constitution as a question presented; OR (2) The lower court decision being appealed explicitly addressed a Third Amendment claim on the merits; OR (3) The Supreme Court's order granting certiorari explicitly identifies a Third Amendment issue as a question for review. For the avoidance of doubt: A case where the Third Amendment is mentioned only in passing, in dicta, or as part of a general constitutional analysis without being a distinct claim SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion A case where the Third Amendment is raised only in amicus briefs but not by the parties SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: the Court grants cert in a case where a homeowner challenges military housing requirements under the Third Amendment; the Court grants cert in a case where the question presented is "Whether police officers qualify as 'soldiers' under the Third Amendment”; the Court grants cert where a lower court ruled on the scope of Third Amendment protections and that ruling is being appealed.

Timeline

  • Market opened
    2026-11-10 20:14:55 UTC
  • Event starts
    2025-07-18 14:00:00 UTC
  • Market closes
    2029-01-20 15:00:00 UTC
  • Payout
    Winning contracts pay $1.00 each once the result is confirmed

About

Before Jan 2029 Prices follow the matching market on Kalshi (KXSCOTUSCERT3RD-29JAN) and then move with trading here.