Politics

AI

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

2% chance

$72,477 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before 2027. If a bill that eliminates capital gains taxes for at least some digital assets becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Will LLM restrictions become law?

Before 202831% Before 20275%

$60,578 volume · Closes Jan 2, 2028

Before 2028. If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court?

3% chance

$18,583 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before 2027. If an official filing or statement made during oral argument in a federal court proceeding (e.g.

How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?

At least 1 77% Yes No

At least 2 64% Yes No

At least 3 52% Yes No

$12,515 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?

chance

Yes —No —

$10,354 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?

Before Jan 1, 2027 10% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 5% Yes No

$5,429 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

Before Jan 1, 2028 71% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 49% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 32% Yes No

$4,737 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?

Before Jan 1, 2029 31% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 20% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 6% Yes No

$2,517 vol Closes Jan 1, 2029

Will China obtain an EUV machine?

Before Jan 1, 2030 70% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2029 54% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 30% Yes No

$2,088 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

Will DOJ sue a major grocery retailer over beef prices?

chance

Yes —No —

$1,547 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

How many articles will Pete Hegseth be impeached on?

At least 1 72% Yes No

At least 3 65% Yes No

At least 5 57% Yes No

$957 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?

Before Mar 1, 2027 9% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2027 5% Yes No

$826 vol Closes Mar 1, 2027

Will a court order CNN back on Air Force One?

37%

chance

Yes —No —

$481 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will the Eisenhower Executive Office Building be painted in 2026?

20%

chance ▼1

Yes —No —

$201 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027