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Politics

NYC

NYC

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

98% chance

$170,592 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027. If a law prohibiting the operation of horse-drawn carriages for hire has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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NYC

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes?

Before 202945% Before 203040% Before 202827% Before 20272%

$110,977 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2030

Before 2030. If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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NYC

Will Mamdani tax billion-dollar incomes in 2026?

2% chance

$100,276 volume · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027. If a law authorizing a new personal income tax bracket or surcharge on incomes over $1 billion for New York City residents has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Increase 0.01-0.99% 40% Yes No

No change or decrease 0–0.99% 36% Yes No

Decrease 1-1.99% 7% Yes No

$90,681 vol +5 more · Closes Jun 1, 2028

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

4%

chance ▲1

$59,379 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?

5%

chance

$43,114 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?

75%

chance ▲1

$39,121 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?

5%

chance

$37,341 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will NYC buses become free before 2027?

5%

chance ▲1

$31,302 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Mamdani raise property taxes?

10%

chance ▼1

$26,478 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

5%

chance ▼1

$25,135 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?

Before Jan 1, 2030 31% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2029 13% Yes No

Before Jan 1, 2028 5% Yes No

$18,748 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 1, 2030

When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?

Before Jan 1, 2027 14% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 14% Yes No

Before Dec 1, 2026 8% Yes No

$13,581 vol Closes Jul 1, 2027

NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?

Above $200 million 82% Yes No

Above $400 million 76% Yes No

Above $600 million 60% Yes No

$1,674 vol +4 more · Closes May 1, 2027

Will a court block NYC's horse-carriage ban before 2028?

22%

chance ▼38

$396 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

How many affordable homes will NYC finance in FY2027?

Above 15,000 90% Yes No

Above 20,000 79% Yes No

Above 25,000 69% Yes No

$64 vol +6 more · Closes Sep 17, 2027

NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?

27%

chance

$61 vol Closes Feb 1, 2027

Will a court rule NYC's pied-à-terre tax unconstitutional?

46%

chance ▼4

$15 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028