Log in Sign up

Politics

Trump

Trump

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Before Jul 1, 202778% Before Apr 1, 202771% Before Jan 1, 202712% Before Nov 21, 20263%

$612,888 volume · Closes Jul 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027. If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Read more

Trump

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Below 36%66% Below 35.5%51% Below 35%32% Below 34.5%22%

$403,786 volume · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Dec 2025 to Dec 2026. If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 37%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Read more

Trump

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Above 43%4% Above 44%4% Above 45%3% Above 46%3%

$179,418 volume · Closes Jan 7, 2027

Dec 2025 to Dec 2026. If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Read more

Will a cabinet member be impeached?

Before Jan 1, 2028 96% Yes No

Before Jan 20, 2029 94% Yes No

Before Jul 1, 2027 91% Yes No

$166,195 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

Between 400 and 449 20% Yes No

Between 350 and 399 17% Yes No

Between 450 and 499 17% Yes No

$63,234 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)

At least 1 99% Yes No

At least 10 99% Yes No

At least 20 99% Yes No

$41,877 vol +2 more · Closes in 5d

How many states will Trump visit in Nov 2026?

At least 5 99% Yes No

At least 6 39% Yes No

At least 7 20% Yes No

$31,919 vol +4 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

Above $1M 98% Yes No

Above $5M 83% Yes No

Above $10M 35% Yes No

$21,021 vol +7 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?

At least 1 76% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 18% Yes No

$17,770 vol +1 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How many Senate Republicans will vote to convict Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 43% Yes No

At least 3 39% Yes No

$12,643 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (11/7-11/13)

At least 1 22% Yes No

At least 3 5% Yes No

At least 10 4% Yes No

$6,172 vol +3 more · Closes in 4d

How long will Trump's next Press Secretary last?

At least 7 days 88% Yes No

At least 14 days 83% Yes No

At least 30 days 79% Yes No

$4,939 vol +5 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?

56%

chance ▲1

$4,530 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

How many House Republicans will vote to impeach Trump?

At least 1 61% Yes No

At least 2 31% Yes No

At least 3 25% Yes No

$4,447 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 21, 2029

How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?

Below 36% 95% Yes No

Below 35% 92% Yes No

Below 34% 84% Yes No

$1,341 vol +4 more · Closes Jan 27, 2029

How many Truths will Trump delete in Nov 2026?

At least 5 65% Yes No

At least 10 48% Yes No

At least 15 44% Yes No

$1,269 vol +2 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

How many bills will President Trump sign in Nov 2026?

At least 4 88% Yes No

At least 6 79% Yes No

At least 8 66% Yes No

$994 vol +5 more · Closes Dec 1, 2026

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?

At least 4 95% Yes No

At least 2 94% Yes No

At least 3 92% Yes No

$975 vol +9 more · Closes Jan 1, 2028

Will the D.C. Circuit fully affirm the Perkins Coie ruling?

63%

chance

$420 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

At least 1 94% Yes No

At least 2 67% Yes No

At least 3 41% Yes No

$377 vol +2 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration in 2026?

21%

chance ▼2

$120 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027