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SCOTUS & Courts

SCOTUS & Courts

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?

Ted Cruz6% Andrew Oldham5% Mike Lee4% Michael Park3%
$796,009 volume · Closes Jan 21, 2029

By January 20, 2029. If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

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SCOTUS & Courts
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Samuel Alito 36% YesNo
John Roberts 23% YesNo
Clarence Thomas 21% YesNo
$126,454 vol +6 more · Closes Jan 20, 2029
SCOTUS & Courts
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists 7% YesNo
Republican National Committee v. Eakin 6% YesNo
Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche 6% YesNo
$69,618 vol +3 more · Closes Jan 1, 2027
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes —No —
$16,031 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
5%
chance
Yes —No —
$10,099 vol Closes Jan 20, 2029
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the size of the Supreme Court be changed during Trump's Presidency?
6%
chance
Yes —No —
$6,076 vol Closes Jan 20, 2029
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the Supreme Court bar Boulder’s state-law climate claims against Suncor and Exxon?
64%
chance ▲1
Yes —No —
$5,724 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations?
72%
chance ▼2
Yes —No —
$4,434 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about flag burning before 2027?
1%
chance ▼5
Yes —No —
$3,970 vol Closes Jan 1, 2027
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS overturn or narrow Stinson deference to federal sentencing-guideline commentary?
26%
chance
Yes —No —
$3,512 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS bar unpled affirmative defenses at summary judgment?
77%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,794 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS require 12-person juries for serious felonies?
77%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,668 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS allow First Step Act halfway-house claims under §2241?
53%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,643 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS reject narrow Free Exercise tests for Catholic preschools?
90%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,568 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims?
12%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,237 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
20%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,216 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the House pass a bill expanding the Supreme Court?
15%
chance ▲2
Yes —No —
$1,166 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS require state-law compensation in private natural-gas condemnations?
22%
chance
Yes —No —
$1,058 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?
66%
chance
Yes —No —
$834 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS allow religious chilling-effect claims without a final land-use decision?
89%
chance
Yes —No —
$831 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS bar Watanabe’s Bivens medical-care claim?
85%
chance
Yes —No —
$819 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS count subscribers to a video provider’s non-video offerings as VPPA consumers?
70%
chance
Yes —No —
$714 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS let the Labor Department impose H-2A monetary remedies through agency proceedings?
12%
chance ▼4
Yes —No —
$705 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the Supreme Court have more than 9 seats before 2030?
24%
chance
Yes —No —
$478 vol Closes Jan 1, 2030
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS let people seek green cards after their asylum is terminated?
30%
chance
Yes —No —
$455 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS bar successive habeas claims that could have been raised earlier?
51%
chance
Yes —No —
$404 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS hold that EAJA covers immigration-detention habeas actions?
69%
chance
Yes —No —
$400 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS allow school employees to sue under Title IX for workplace sex discrimination?
34%
chance
Yes —No —
$213 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?
76%
chance ▲1
Yes —No —
$210 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?
65%
chance
Yes —No —
$151 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?
89%
chance
Yes —No —
$64 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction?
77%
chance
Yes —No —
$52 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will SCOTUS require courts to consider a defendant’s specific wrongdoing in excessive-fines cases?
81%
chance
Yes —No —
$32 vol Closes Aug 1, 2028
SCOTUS & Courts
Will the House pass Supreme Court term limits?
16%
chance
Yes —No —
$0 vol Closes Jan 1, 2028